Results
This page shows results from each NFL season for how well each prediction method chooses the top 4 teams.The first section of results shows the top 4 teams from each method, taking only two per conference (AFC/NFC). If needed, I used the NFL's tie-breaker process (see below).
In case you want to know more details, there is also a second section that shows the top four places, without regard to conference Some methods produce a lot of ties, so there may be 5 or 6 teams in the top 4. Plus, that doesn't reflect reality because the NFL playoffs work down to the top 2 teams per conference.
- First section - 2 teams per conference
- Second section - top 4 places (plus ties)
The NFL tie-breaker procedure is :
- head-to-head
- division record
- common games
- conference record
- (several more items that I didn't need)
The average given at the top of each section is the percent accuracy of choosing all four teams correctly. (i.e. if you use this forecasting method at the end of the regular season, you have an X percent chance of guessing the teams who will play in the conference championships.)
* a star next to a method's results indicates that hte method predicted the Super Bowl champion that year (i.e. it's top team was the actual top team)
* a star next to a team's results indicates that the team was involved in a tie. The other team might or might not be shown, depending on how many spots were available.
Summary of Results (Using Conferences AFC or NFC)
Click on a year to get details for that NFL season
| Average | 4 / 4 (100%) | ITP (41.7%) | MPW (50.0%) | MYW (33.3%) | ITPLS (15%) | MPWLS (20%) | DPE (10%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Actual | ITP (2 / 4) | MPW (3 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS | MPWLS | DPE |
| 1st | Steelers | Colts (14-2) | Colts (12) | Chiefs (58.9) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2nd | Seahawks | Seahawks (13-3)* | Seahawks (11.3) | Colts (55.3) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 3rd | Broncos | Broncos (13-3)* | Broncos (8.6) | Seahawks (52.9) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 4th | Panthers | Bucs (11-5)* | Panthers (8.2) | Cardinals (52.8) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2006 | Actual | ITP (2 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (0 / 4) | ITPLS (1 / 4 *) | MPWLS (1 / 4 *) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Colts | Chargers (14-2) | Chargers (11.9) | Saints (84.2) | Colts (14-2) | Colts (12) | Chargers (10) |
| 2nd | Bears | Bears (13-3)* | Bears (10.8) | Chargers (63.4) | Seahawks (13-3)* | Broncos (8.6) | Eagles (5) |
| 3rd | Patriots | Ravens (13-3)* | Ravens (9.5) | Steelers (57.5) | Broncos (13-3)* | Seahawks (11.3) | Ravens (4) |
| 4th | Saints | Saints (10-6)* | Saints (5.7) | Eagles (53.3) | Bucs (11-5)* | Panthers (8.2) | Rams (3) |
| 2007 | Actual | ITP (2 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS (1 / 4) | MPWLS (1 / 4) | DPE (1 / 4) |
| 1st | Giants | Patriots (16-0) | Patriots (11.2) | Cardinals (77.7) | Chargers (14-2) | Chargers (11.9) | Patriots (16) |
| 2nd | Patriots | Cowboys (13-3)* | Colts (10.3) | Patriots (75.2) | Bears (13-3)* | Bears (10.8) | Chargers (6) |
| 3rd | Packers | Packers (13-3)* | Cardinals (8.4) | Cowboys (58.1) | Ravens (13-3)* | Ravens (9.5) | Redskins (4) |
| 4th | Chargers | Jaguars (11-5)* | Packers (8.2) | Browns (46.1) | Saints (10-6)* | Saints (5.7) | Eagles (3) |
| 2008 | Actual | ITP (0 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (3 / 4) | ITPLS (0 / 4) | MPWLS (1 / 4) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Steelers | Titans (13-3) | Ravens (8.9) | Eagles (76.2) | Patriots (16-0) | Patriots (11.2) | Colts (9) |
| 2nd | Cardinals | Colts (12-4)* | Titans (8.8) | Steelers (74.7) | Cowboys (13-3)* | Colts (10.3) | Dolphins (5) |
| 3rd | Ravens | Giants (12-4)* | Giants (8.3) | Saints (71.2) | Packers (13-3)* | Cardinals (8.4) | Falcons (3) |
| 4th | Eagles | Panthers (12-4)* | Eagles (7.9) | Ravens (62.9) | Jaguars (11-5)* | Packers (8.2) | 49ers (2) |
| 2009 | Actual | ITP (3 / 4) | MPW (1 / 4 *) | MYW (2 / 4) | ITPLS (1 / 4) | MPWLS (0 / 4) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Saints | Colts (14-2) | Saints (10.6) | Cowboys (83.5) | Titans (13-3) | Ravens (8.9) | Chargers (11) |
| 2nd | Colts | Chargers (13-3)* | Packers (10.2) | Patriots (77.1) | Colts (12-4)* | Titans (8.8) | Browns (4) |
| 3rd | Vikings | Saints (13-3)* | Patriots (8.9) | Vikings (74.1) | Giants (12-4)* | Giants (8.3) | Cowboys (3)* |
| 4th | Jets | Vikings (12-4) | Chargers (8.4) | Jets (68.7) | Panthers (12-4)* | Eagles (7.9) | Falcons (3)* |
| 2010 | Actual | ITP (1 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS (0 / 4) | MPWLS (1 / 4) | DPE (1 / 4) |
| 1st | Packers | Patriots (14-2) | Patriots (12.8) | Chargers (124.0) | Colts (14-2) | Saints (10.6) | Patriots (8) |
| 2nd | Steelers | Falcons (13-3) | Packers (9.2) | Giants (69.5) | Chargers (13-3)* | Packers (10.2) | Ravens (4)* |
| 3rd | Bears | Steelers (12-4)* | Steelers (8.9) | Steelers (68.5) | Saints (13-3)* | Patriots (8.9) | Lions (4)* |
| 4th | Jets | Saints (11-5)* | Falcons (7.9) | Saints (66.3) | Vikings (12-4) | Chargers (8.4) | Packers (2)* |
Summary of Results (League-wide)
Click on a year to get details for that NFL season
| Average | 4 / 4 (100%) | ITP (54.2%) | MPW (58.3%) | MYW (37.5%) | ITPLS (20%) | MPWLS (25%) | DPE (10%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Actual | ITP (2 / 4) | MPW (4 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS | MPWLS | DPE |
| 1st | Steelers | Colts (14-2) | Colts (12) | Chiefs (58.9) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2nd | Seahawks | Broncos (13-3) Seahawks (13-3) | Seahawks (11.3) | Colts (55.3) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 3rd | Broncos | na | Broncos (8.6) | Seahawks (52.9) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 4th | Panthers | Jaguars (12-4) | Steelers (8.2) Panthers (8.2) | Cardinals (52.8) | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2006 | Actual | ITP (3 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS (1 / 4 *) | MPWLS (1 / 4 *) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Colts | Chargers (14-2) | Chargers (11.9) | Saints (84.2) | Colts (14-2) | Colts (12) | Chargers (10) |
| 2nd | Bears | Ravens (13-3) Bears (13-3) | Bears (10.8) | Chargers (63.4) | Broncos (13-3) Seahawks (13-3) | Broncos (8.6) | Eagles (5) |
| 3rd | Patriots | na | Ravens (9.5) | Steelers (57.5) | na | Seahawks (11.3) | Ravens (4) |
| 4th | Saints | Colts (12-4) Patriots (12-4) | Patriots (9.3) | Jaguars (55.3) | Jaguars (12-4) | Steelers (8.2) Panthers (8.2) | Jets (3) Rams (3) |
| 2007 | Actual | ITP (3 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (2 / 4) | ITPLS (2 / 4) | MPWLS (2 / 4) | DPE (2 / 4) |
| 1st | Giants | Patriots (16-0) | Patriots (11.2) | Cardinals (77.7) | Chargers (14-2) | Chargers (11.9) | Patriots (16) |
| 2nd | Patriots | Cowboys (13-3) Packers (13-3) | Colts (10.3) | Patriots (75.2) | Ravens / Bears (13-3) | Bears (10.8) | Chargers (6) |
| 3rd | Packers | na | Cardinals (8.4) | Cowboys (58.1) | na | Ravens (9.5) | Redskins (4) |
| 4th | Chargers | Jaguars (11-5) Chargers (11-5) | Packers (8.2) | Packers (56.9) | Colts (12-4) Patriots (12-4) | Patriots (9.3) | Eagles (3) |
| 2008 | Actual | ITP (1 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (2 / 4) | ITPLS (0 / 4) | MPWLS (1 / 4) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Steelers | Titans (13-3) | Ravens (8.9) | Eagles (76.2) | Patriots (16-0) | Patriots (11.2) | Colts (9) |
| 2nd | Cardinals | Panthers (12-4) Colts (12-4) Giants (12-4) Steelers (12-4) | Titans (8.8) | Steelers (74.7) | Cowboys (13-3) Packers (13-3) | Colts (10.3) | Dolphins (5) |
| 3rd | Ravens | na | Giants (8.3) | Saints (71.2) | na | Cardinals (8.4) | Patriots (4) Chargers (4) |
| 4th | Eagles | na | Eagles (7.9) | Giants (63.9) | Jaguars (11-5) Chargers (11-5) | Packers (8.2) | na |
| 2009 | Actual | ITP (3 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4 *) | MYW (2 / 4) | ITPLS (1 / 4) | MPWLS (0 / 4) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Saints | Colts (14-2) | Saints (10.6) | Cowboys (83.5) | Titans (13-3) | Ravens (8.9) | Chargers (11) |
| 2nd | Colts | Saints (13-3) Chargers (13-3) | Packers (10.2) | Patriots (77.1) | Panthers / Colts / Giants / Steelers (12-4) | Titans (8.8) | Browns (4) |
| 3rd | Vikings | na | Vikings (9.9) | Vikings (74.1) | na | Giants (8.3) | Texans (4) |
| 4th | Jets | Vikings (12-4) | Patriots (8.9) | Jets (68.7) | na | Eagles (7.9) | Falcons / Panthers / Cowboys / Steelers (3) |
| 2010 | Actual | ITP (1 / 4) | MPW (2 / 4) | MYW (1 / 4) | ITPLS (0 / 4) | MPWLS (1 / 4) | DPE (0 / 4) |
| 1st | Packers | Patriots (14-2) | Patriots (12.8) | Chargers (124.0) | Colts (14-2) | Saints (10.6) | Patriots (8) |
| 2nd | Steelers | Falcons (13-3) | Packers (9.2) | Giants (69.5) | Saints / Chargers (13-3) | Packers (10.2) | Ravens (4) Lions (4) Colts (4) |
| 3rd | Bears | Ravens (12-4) Steelers (12-4) | Steelers (8.9) | Steelers (68.5) | na | Vikings (9.9) | na |
| 4th | Jets | na | Falcons (7.9) | Saints (66.3) | Vikings (12-4) | Patriots (8.9) | na |
Acronyms
| HTW | Home Team Wins |
|---|---|
| ITP | Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate |
| MPW | More Points Wins |
| MYW | More Yards Wins |
| DP | Davison Postulate |
| ITPLS | Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate Last Season |
| MPWLS | More Points Wins Last Season |
| DPE | Davison Postulate Extended |